World oil production has been on a plateau for the last several years. Is that a temporary leveling off, a geologically imposed peak before long-term decline, or something called "peak oil lite"? The theory of peak oil lite is that human-based reasons, not geological reasons, are creating at least a temporary peak in oil production.

The thing is, it's pretty hard to tell peak oil lite from geological peak oil. When the world nears or reaches geological peak oil, it unleashes human forces that keep production down.

For example, Iran and Venezuela have both said recently that they think OPEC should commit to reducing output at their meeting on September 9, since oil prices are going down. Yes, they're saying that the price of oil is too low!

Because oil production is so tight elsewhere, OPEC has real power to jack prices back up. OPEC's power to raise oil prices is strongest at the time of regional or world peak oil.

Read and view this book at Amazon.com.

The story of the Douglas Administration's delay in the purchase of new passenger rail cars that I broke last week and updated last Saturday continues to spread through the Vermont media.

The Brattleboro Reformer covered the story on Wednesday, and they talked to the director of the Vermont Rail Advocacy Network, who points out the importance of moving expeditiously on the rail cars:

But rail advocates say Gov. James Douglas has simply prioritized roads over trains.

"Perhaps the real issue is that Gov. Douglas has proposed (and the Legislature approved) issuing $10 million in bonds for road construction projects," said Christopher Parker, executive director of a new nonprofit group called the Vermont Rail Advocacy Network, in an e-mail. "The problem with the delay is that it risks losing a $2 million grant from Amtrak."

He said the plan, if ever implemented, would be to add runs in the morning and at night, when traffic is heaviest on Interstate 91.

Bruce Johnson has also written a story on the passenger rail cars; look for it in this Sunday's Times Argus / Rutland Herald. (UPDATE: The story is here.)

The Reformer also published an editorial on Thursday, comparing the train service in Brattleboro in 1938 with 2008. The nickel version: There were six departures from Brattleboro to New York City in 1938, vs. one today. And there's only a 25% chance that you'll get to New York within 30 minutes of the scheduled arrival time today. Going east and west from Brattleboro by train is difficult or impossible now, too.

I haven't found answers to the questions outstanding at the end of my previous post. Maybe next week...

UPDATE: Nancy Schulz, Executive Director of the Vermont Bicycle and Pedestrian Coalition, sent out the following email today:

VBPC member and volunteer David Cain is taking the initiative to gather information and supporters to address the issue of bicycles on Amtrak trains. A major obstacle is Amtrak's refusal to allow bikes on their trains to and from New Haven, CT that make connections with the Vermonter. If this specific issue is one that energizes you, then please consider contacting Dave directly to find out how you can help. You can reach Dave by sending an email message and please "cc" me. Thanks.

A sobering article from one of the U.S. Empire's newspapers of record.

Read to the end - burning one's furniture, a sign of "intense economic anxiety," indeed.

I reprinted the letter here, with the link at the top.

Senator Sanders has spent his political career listening and chronicling the
desperation of poor Vermonters - one wonders, with the U.S. Empire
approaching a crossroads, what anyone in DC can possibly do to "fix"
the brokenness here.

Rob Hopkins' The Transition Handbook is a new, tremendously useful, and inspiring book on how to move, as the subtitle says, "From oil dependency to local resilience."

Richard Heinberg has spent a lot of time visiting Transition Towns in the UK, and he describes the movement as looking "more like a party than a protest march."

And it is a party, not a protest. The Transition Town philosophy is about making change where you are, with the people around you, not pressuring someone else to make the change for you.

Here's one small way this book has helped me:
I give a lot of peak oil slide shows, and I was intrigued by his suggestion for a "do-it-yourself" peak oil slideshow. You create the slideshow by printing up each slide on a piece of 8.5x11 paper, with circles and arrows (or, in any case, a paragraph) explaining the slide on the back of each one, and then hand the cards out to the audience. Each person's job is to meet every other person in the room and explain the slide he or she has. By the time everyone has met everyone else, they have had quite an introduction to peak oil. It really gets people invested in the ideas and helps them get to know each other!

I haven't tried the full DIY slideshow yet, but the idea has inspired me to cut off the final part of my standard slideshow and replace it with a visioning exercise about the future of Vermont. I then ask the audience to break up into small groups and share their visions. The room comes to life when they do it!

Though the book came out in March or so in the UK, it's not scheduled to be distributed in the US until September.* Normally, I try to buy books at local bookstores. This one is too good to wait that long for. You can order it online, with quick and surprisingly inexpensive shipping from the UK.

Just a day before Valentine's Day, the current occupant of the White
House demonstrated his love for United States citizen/consumers by
signing the so-called “Economic Stimulus Act of 2008” into law.
Sitting behind a small desk with a banner that shouted "Boosting Our
Economy," he inked a $107-million spending package that will send (any
week now) tax “rebate” checks ranging between $300 and $1,200 to
middle- and low-income taxpayers (which is to say, most of us).
Joining in the photo-op were Congressional Democratic leaders Nancy

He prefers not to think about money but he doesn’t have that luxury.
The trust-fund gene skipped his family, and it’s been thus far a life
of fiscal constraint. Not that he’s complaining: He’s done good enough
to keep gas in the Chevy and shoes on the boys. The roof doesn’t leak,
even when it’s raining. There’s milk in the fridge and ammo for the
rifle. He is not impoverished.

 The Peak Oil conundrum is perhaps the single best 21st century
trend for making the case for relocalization, and ultimately, secession.

 Rather than elaborate here, I suggest you read more from Richard Heinberg, who was in Vermont late last week to share his 8 books of wisdom with listeners.

Richard Heinberg, one of the foremost peak oil educators in the US, will be coming to Vermont this week. On Wednesday evening (April 23), he will speak in Brattleboro, and on Thursday evening (April 24), he'll be in Montpelier. Details on the places and times for these events, plus how to arrange transportation to the Montpelier event, are at the Vermont Peak Oil Network web site.

Heinberg will also be speaking to legislators at the State House on Thursday at 9 am, and the talk will be broadcast live and streamed by WGDR, 91.1 FM Plainfield. The topic will be "Energy Overview: Navigating the Transition from Fossil Fuels to Renewables."

In the northern half of the state, you can hear me interview him live, Wednesday at 1:05 - 2:00 pm on Equal Time, on WDEV 96.1 & 96.5 FM/550 AM.

In addition to his four books on peak oil, Heinberg writes a monthly Museletter. Several recent Museletters are especially interesting for Vermonters.